Has Dave Dombrowski Jumped The Shark?

In September of 1977 Arthur Fonzarelli adorned his trademark leather jacket and a pair of swim trunks, strapped on a pair of water skies, and jumped the shark. TV and pop culture critics now widely consider this the exact moment the show Happy Days took a turn for the worse, and began its’ slow descent into cancellation. Interestingly enough the show lasted seven more years after the totally realistic and truly interesting stunt (insert sarcasm here). Which leads me to the question, has Dave Dombrowski jumped the shark as President and GM of the Tigers? If so, when exactly was the moment it happened?

With eight years of experience running the team, there is sufficient fact and evidence available to evaluate his performance. It is safe to say DD has outlasted any grace period that may have been in effect when taking over an awful organization. He has rebuilt the roster, several times over. In fact there is not a single Tiger on the current 40 man roster that was there at the time he took the reigns.

Upon his arrival, fresh off a nine year stint as GM of the Florida Marlins, his hiring was applauded and widely considered to be a brilliant move for the fledgling Motor City Kitties. Perhaps it was, perhaps it wasn’t. Hindsight is a funny thing. Dombrowski came to town with an ethereal reputation as a man who could identify talent, a man who could build from within, a man who could transform a have not into a have, and do it the right way. Pundits gushed, ownership smiled proudly, media members spoke of a coming new era and in general all was well with the expectations for this ballclub, despite the performance on the field in the first few years of his tenure.

2002 was the first campaign played out under the leadership of mighty Dave. The Tigers finished last in their division. It was ok. These things take time. The roster was still littered with subpar talent and the farm system was barren. In 2003 the Tigers again finished last, losing 119 games. It was ok. These things take time. In 2004 and 2005 the Tigers finished fourth in the AL Central, winning 72 and 71 games respectively. Finally, some progress, now this is what we had in mind! Then came the magical year of 2006. Out of seemingly nowhere the Detroit Tigers snagged the AL wildcard spot and ran with it, all the way to the World Series.

All hail Dave Dombrowski! A mighty king is he.

Since that time however this ballclub has played a grand total of zero post-season games. In total over his eight year stint to date the Tigers have qualified for the post-season once. In his 13 years as GM of the Montreal Expos and Florida Marlins this was the same, one playoff appearance. That turned out to be a world championship season for the Marlins in 1997.

In the 21 years that Dombrowski has been ultimately responsible for the talent of a major league franchise that talent has been good enough to play post-season baseball twice. To be fair the a number of key players on the 2003 Marlins team (which also won the World Series) were “Dombrowski Products”. So let’s give him three playoff appearances, just to be nice.  Whether that number is acceptable to you, or not, is entirely up to you.

Perhaps we should factor in that a GM, regardless of how well he performs his duties, can not single handedly place a squad into title contention. There are many other intangibles in play. A team needs good coaching, a strong manager, ownership that is committed to winning, good health of his players and a little luck. I would argue the Detroit Tigers have provided all of this and more to DD in his time here, particularly in the last four years.

Mike Ilitch has spent the money. Jim Leyland and his staff are experienced, respected, talented baseball men. The Tigers have seen injuries, sure, but ultimately no more than the major league average. As for luck, there has probably been a bit on both sides of that issue.

Maybe evaluating the performance of Dombrowski requires us going deeper than wins and losses, and playoff appearances. Ok. Let’s look at talent. After all this was the hallmark of his experience, a man who knows talent when he sees it, a man who makes good decisions for small market teams where the margin of error is minute.

In his time in Detroit Dave has pulled off some well above average trades and draft picks. Obtaining Placido Polanco for Ramon Martinez and a guy currently in a Venezuelan prison was a dandy move. Pulling Carlos Pena and Jeremy Bonderman out of the Jeff Weaver hat should be scored as a win as well (Cutting Pena loose just before he became a power hitting stud with a top notch glove, not so much). Brian Rogers for Sean Casey; Ramon Santiago and the other Juan Gonzalez for Carlos Guillen; Matt Joyce for Edwin Jackson – all wins. Drafting (and signing) Justin Verlander, Curtis Granderson and Rick Porcello have all proved to be astute decisions.

But there is a dark side.

There was Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria; Cody Ross for Steve Colyer; Kyle Farnsworth for Roman Colon and Zach Miner; Mauricio Robles and Lucas French for Jarrod Washburn; Brett Jacobsen for Aubrey Huff. There have been a litiny of big dollar contracts handed out that have yielded little to no reward – Dontrelle Willis, Nate Robertson (who DD drafted with the Marlins), Troy Percival, etc.

One could argue quite well that the contracts given to Carlos Guillen, Brandon Inge and Jeremy Bonderman were overtly player friendly and not in the best long-term interests of the ballclub. The eight year 152 million dollar deal given to Miguel Cabrera is up for debate as well among many fans. Magglio Ordonez will play for 18 million dollars in 2010 and could do the same in 2011 if he hits reasonable milestones. And that is simply his mark with the Tigers.

While Dombrowski gets significant credit for his early work with the Expos and Marlins, his miscues in those stops seem to get glossed over. Yes, he drafted and signed Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez. Yes, he acquired via trade a number of above average players on the cheap for his fiscally challenged employers. But, he also traded Randy Johnson (along with two other minor leaguers) for Mark Langston and a player to be named later. He traded Trevor Hoffman, although he did get Gary Sheffield for a short time in that deal. Dombrowski traded Carl Everett (when Carl Everett was good) for Quilvio Veras.

He traded Johan Santana and cash for Jared Camp. Let that last one sink in a bit.

During the infamous Marlins fire sale of 1997/98 Dombrowski traded away Moises Alou, Devon White, Robb Nen, Kevin Brown and Al Leiter. He had to. Ownership told him so. I get that. The Marlins acquired 14 players in return. Only A.J. Burnett and Derrek Lee of that group have proven to be quality MLB talent. He was told to trade Bobby Bonilla, Charles Johnson and Gary Sheffield, so he did, for Mike Piazza and Todd Zeile. Eight days later he traded Mike Piazza for Ed Yarnall, Preston Wilson and Geoff Goetz. Todd Zeile and Preston Wilson were nice players, but was that trade(s) really a success?

I don’t mean to drudge up past failures to smear the man, only to illuminate history, and to demonstrate there is a pattern at play here, one that the Detroit Tigers are feeling the effects of as we speak.

Dombrowski served as GM of the Marlines for nine seasons. He is about to enter his ninth season here. The Marlins made the playoffs once, the Tigers once. The Marlins were forced to relinquish their high quality talent due to financial pressures, and well, we’ve seen Curtis Granderson, Edwin Jackson, Fernando Rodney and Placido Polanco leave town since the end of the 2009 season.  

Who knows, perhaps Dombrowski will be out as GM of the Tigers in a year or two, and the Tigers will win a World Championship two years later. Perhaps he will be out and the Tigers will be left with a minor league system ranked among the worst in baseball by numerous writers and scouts. Perhaps when all the “bad money” is off the books at the end of 2010 he’ll still be here, and with the blessing of ownership splurge on talent heading into 2011, and begin a reign of terror over the American League. Perhaps.

The simple truth today however is that after eight years at the helm this ballclub has finished fourth or worst in the AL Central five times, and is heading into 2010 undermanned. We can claim the economy as a cause for the Tigers inability to spend money now, we can also imagine how much money would be available to spend if so much of it hadn’t been squandered in the recent past.

It feels a lot like we’re watching a rerun. As if any moment Fonzie will get behind that speed boat and jump the shark, again. Maybe he already has and we just haven’t realized it.

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Tags: Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, Dave Dombrowski, Detroit Tigers, Jeremy Bonderman, Jim Leyland, Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera