Second Guessing

All of us in one way, shape or form enjoy playing armchair manager here and there, it’s normal, and it’s ok within limits. Fans, players, coaches and writers alike look back on games played and wonder, what if? It’s what we do. As long as we realize and accept that this exercise is in good plain fun and not to be taken too seriously it’s a healthy way to purge ourselves of swollen afterthoughts. So with that concept in mind I asked a few of my favorite Tigers bloggers to put on their hindsight goggles to examine the last few games of the Tigers season, the games that made necessary this one game all or nothing playoff the Tigers and Twins face today. What would you have done differently in the last two or three games if you were Jim Leyland?

Let’s start with John Parent from Tigers Tracks and The Tigers Den:

The first thing I would have done is avoided Alfredo Figaro at all costs.  I know it’s easy to second guess after the fact, but like Rob Neyer, I was first guessing that move as soon as I heard that Leyland didn’t want to start porcello on short rest.  No one questioned why it wasn’t Verlander on Saturday.  I guess because Verlander had been penciled in for Sunday, but to me, if he’s your horse and you know you have to win two games, why not run him out there a day early and still have the rookie in your back pocket on Sunday.

Secondly, where has Raburn been? Again, this is not something that people weren’t screaming for the past week.  His huge day Sunday just proved us all right.  Obviously we don’t know that Raburn would have been better than Huff or Guillen, but I could guess he would have been, especially on the ill-fated sliding-way-too-early-for-the-flyball attempt that Guillen tried (was that Friday? I cannot recall anymore).

Why oh why did he feel the need to burn Rodney during Saturday’s game? I know you touched on this in your post, and I agree, to use him up in a game they weren’t going to win is beyond me.  Then to bring him back in the 8th on Sunday was begging for disaster, especially when Lyon was up as well.  Why get Lyon hot to leave him in the ‘pen? If Granderson doesn’t make that catch, think about the second guessing that would have taken place.

One more thing, when your third baseman is hitting under .200 over the past three months, maybe you should think about using a pinch hitter on occasion.  I know that during the first half, before he tore up his knees, Inge was a force in the lineup and consistently came up with hits, both big and small.  But when you absolutely need a hit, you cannot rely on a guy on one leg who has never been a high average guy when he was healthy.  You have someone on that bench who has a better chance to get a hit than Inge, I promise you do.  Use Avila or Huff or Raburn or Clete or Don F-ing Kelly, I don’t care.  Anyone one of those guys is a better choice.

What would I have done differently than the Marlboro Man?

Risky it may have been, I roll the dice and push up the starts of Justin Verlander to Saturday, and Rick Porcello (who, as it turned out, begged Leyland to pitch out of the pen this past weekend) to Sunday. They were BOTH must wn games, and starting Alberto Figaro was essentially waving the white flag on Saturday,. As we all feared and half expected, Leyland ended up burning through the bullpen as Figaro, a 4A pitcher, wilted under the pressure and gave the Tigers a whole 1.1 innings of ineffective baseball.

What about the long-term health of Verlander and Porcello? It appears more and more Verlander is one of those freaks of nature who thrives under a heavy workload. He’s a workhorse. I’m confident he would have been fine working under short rest. As for Porcello, there was no guarantee he would have been needed on Sunday. If he wasn’t, then sport start Figaro. If he was needed (as it would have turned out), you watch Porcello very closely, look for any signs of distress and aim to get 5 solid innings from him before going to the pen. It would have been 5 more solid innings than Leyland got from Figaro…

Yes, I realize it would have likely meant the struggling Edwin Jackson would start game 1 of the ALDS, but as it works out, he will be anyway…if the Tigers win Tuesday. Which is far from a given, considering how smoking hot the Twins ended the season.

There are 2 other things I would have changed.

One, for as much grief as Ryan Raburn received from all of us, be it bloggers, fans or media, he’s been Detroit’s 2nd best hitter (behind the resurgent Magglio Ordonez) in the final weeks of the season. He’s been hitting everyone hard, righty, lefty, made no difference. I ride the hot bat, and start Raburn both games. Hell, I start Raburn every game in the final 2 weeks.

As the Tigers faced mostly right handed pitching, Raburn became little more than a spectator, as Leyland insisted on a platoon with Carlos Guillen. Guillen has played OK, but has yet to find his sweet hitting stroke of previous seasons. There’s also the fact Raburn, who is far from being a Gold Glove candidate in left, is still a better outfielder than a career shortstop with a bad shoulder who’s playing out of position. If you insist on playing Guillen, you do so strictly as a DH.

Two, Aubrey Huff never gets off the bench. Period. He outright folded under pennant race pressure. I don’t care if you have to give him wrong directions to Comerica, tell him the wrong time of the first pitch, hide his batting helmet or burn his bats, you leave Huff planted in the dugout.

I don’t know–sprinkle magic pixie dust on all their bats?

Seriously, not much. His team is what it is. Maybe start Galarraga instead of Figaro? I might have tried that, in retrospect.

Other than that, I can’t think of much, because Jim’s hamstrung by his team’s lack of offensive punch at the worst possible time.

When it comes down to it, Jim Leyland did what he was supposed to. He did what was needed to extend the season. Considering we now know that his slugger was wasted, it makes sense why he felt the need to put Aubrey Huff in the lineup.  This team has constantly put Jim Leyland in horrible situations this season. Credit has to be given to him and his staff, because he knew that the team might need Verlander on the mound to rap up the season. He stuck to his game plan, and now the Tigers have an opportunity that they quite frankly don’t deserve.

I think you should look back at the entire series; the idea of being able to rest your best weapon (Verlander) against the Yankees should have been an important aspect of the game plan.  So the Tigers should have gone all-out to win Friday and Saturday.  Starting Figaro probably wasn’t the best move.

To start, I would have picked my lineup for the weekend.  Take into account that Laird maybe shouldn’t play three games in a row.  I’d have gone with a strict lineup defensive lineup with Raburn, Granderson, and Magglio in the outfield, with Inge, Everett, Polanco, and Cabrera in the infield.  Laird / Avila / Laird between Friday -> Sunday.  DH Guillen every game.  Make the batting order what you will, but I’d stick to those players.

Figaro only has a few starts in the majors.  If Galarraga was available, he’s a better option to start the game and put Armando on the short leash.  It probably didn’t hurt them based on a lack of offense but the strategy surprised me.  With Leyland’s love of veterans (why else is Huff playing?), it was a surprising move for him to make.

That’s my thoughts, pick your bread and butter lineup and go with it.  You still have matchup at-bats for Thames and Huff and a replacement at both short and second with Santiago.

One caveat here — sounds as if Miguel wasn’t in game shape Saturday evening.  Since the Tiger’s management obviously knew his physical state earlier in the day, maybe giving him the start wasn’t the best idea.

Tags: Alex Avila, Alfredo Figaro, Armando Galarraga, Aubrey Huff, Brandon Inge, Carlos Guillen, Detroit Tigers, Fernando Rodney, Gerald Laird, Jim Leyland, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Rick Porcello, Ryan Raburn