Forget the Cy Young, Verlander Making A Case For MVP

Come Sunday afternoon, if the Tigers have yet to clinch the AL Central, all eyes will be on Justin Verlander. He’s scheduled to start the season finale against the White Sox, as of now. I imagine most everyone involved with the Tigers, from management to players to fans alike are hoping Justin will be excused from his final regular season foray. This would mean the Tigers enter Sunday as division champions, prepared to battle the New York Yankees in the ALDS. If however this goal is not yet achieved, it will be the Tigers ace who must lead them there, as he has done all year. After all, it’s the kind of thing an MVP candidate is supposed to do.

If you were to poll any number of BBWAA members as to who should win the 2009 American League Cy Young award the overwhelming response is likely to be Zack Greinke, and with good reason. The award is presented to the best pitcher in the league, and by most estimations Zack has been just that.

The soon to be 26 year old Greinke enters his final start (Saturday) with a 16-8 record. His 2.06 ERA is the best in Major League Baseball. He boasts 237 strike outs against 49 walks in 223.1 innings pitched this season. His 1.066 WHIP is the best in the game, as is his 212 ERA +. Greinke has been unhittable, dominant, dynamic and every other adjective for greatness I can summon. One thing he hasn’t been however is useful to a playoff team.

This isn’t his fault, the Royals are awful. Simply. Awful. In fact they have been so bad that they have wasted six starts in which he allowed one earned run or less. If the Kansas City offense could have mustered two measly runs in those contests Greinke could have 22 wins to date. It’s a shame. Really, it is. He has pitched well enough to win the Cy Young Award, and probably will. Which may make the following statement sound a bit odd:

Justin Verlander could well be the American League Most Valuable Player this year.

I hear what you’re saying, or are about to – how can he be the MVP when you just said he isn’t even the best pitcher in the league? Because the MVP award is given to the player who is simply the most valuable to his team, not the best at his position, or any position for that matter. I didn’t write the rules of MVP voting, I don’t pretend to fully understand them, but I do proclaim that Justin Verlander fits the letter of the law in this case to the proverbial tee.

With all due respect to Zack Greinke, the Royals would be a fourth place team at best without him. They are in fact a fourth place team with him. While he is the most commonly assumed “best pitcher in the league”, his efforts have failed to elevate his team beyond staring up at mediocrity. He is a freakshow, a one man gang, a superstar surrounded by mush not fit for the post-season. Justin Verlander on the other hand is the anchor of a staff that seems likely to participate in the annual October march to a Worlds Championship. Without Verlander the Tigers would not be where they are. They may in fact be where the Royals are, smack dab in the middle of meaninglessness.

Of course the front-runner for the AL MVP is Joe Mauer, the catcher from the Minnesota Twins. His numbers are enormous. His talent is without bounds. He is the best and most complete catcher in the game today by a country mile. He is on the verge of winning his third batting title in four years. He leads the AL in batting, on-base %, slugging % and OPS. The list of his statistical accolades, if printed, would require a dolly and a circus strong man to lift. And if things in the AL Central shake out the way they likely will, he’ll be watching the playoffs on TV just like the rest of us.

If the Tigers end up in the playoffs, it will be because Justin Verlander put them there.

Miguel Cabrera will get MVP votes. He probably won’t get many, if any first place nods, but he’ll end up on the ballot somewhere, as he has for the last five years. He deserves praise. He is far and away the Tigers best hitter, and among the most powerful and consistent hitters in the game today. I wrote earlier this season that he should be a candidate, and I believe he still should be. However, it will be his teammate that deserves the ultimate individual honor more this year.

For those who look to decide the most valuable player based on statistics, feel free to browse the numerical resume of Mr. Verlander. His ranks among AL pitchers are in parenthesis.

Wins: 18 (T-2nd)
ERA: 3.45 (8th)
WHIP: 1.179 (6th)
Starts: 34 (1st)
Innings Pitched: 232.1 (2nd)
CG: 3 (T-5th)
Strikeouts: 264 (1st)
K per 9 innings pitched: 10.227 (1st)
Hits per 9 IP: 8.251 (8th)
Batters faced: 953 (1st)
K to BB ratio: 4.328 (3rd)
HR per 9 IP: .775 (5th)
Adjusted ERA+: 132 (8th)

The most notable numbers to this poor scribe are starts, where Justin ranks first, innings pitched, where he will likely rank first if he pitches Sunday, and wins, where he is tied for second. More often than any pitcher in the league Verlander has climbed the mound and done battle. In his 34 starts his team has won 22 times – more than Greinke (17), more than Roy Halladay (17), more than Josh Beckett (21) and the same number as C.C. Sabathia (22).

He is a winner, plain and simple. He transforms losses to wins, like water to wine, well almost. Pitching for a team that up until one week ago had fewer hits than any team in the American League, a team that is 10th in the AL in runs scored, he has won 18 times personally and contributed to a team win 22 times. That’s what an MVP does, he helps his team win.

With all due respect to Joe Mauer, to Mark Teixeira, to Kendry Morales and Jason Bay and Adam Lind and Miguel Cabrera and everyone else – No player in the American League has played a bigger role in his teams success this year. He’s done it both quietly, and with panache, but always with everything he had.

He’s thrown 100 or more pitches in 29 of his 34 starts. He’s thrown 120 pitches or more 10 times, including six of last seven outings. When other managers were forced to go to the bullpen, Jim Leyland could leave his horse out there, and his horse kept on running. He has hit 99 MPH or faster on the radar gun in the 8th and 9th innings so many times this year beat writers almost forget to write it down anymore.

He get’s better when his team needs it most.

In tie games opposing hitters are hitting .197 against him. With two outs and runners in scoring position, where victory killing rallies live, that number is .209. In high leverage situations his strikeout to walk ratio is six to one. When a strikeout is needed, when it is imperative that a pitcher reach back for a little extra, when he’s tired, when the game is on the line, Justin Verlander hits triple digits on the radar gun and ends the threat. He is a nine inning closer in so many ways.

Through struggle and strife, with little to no run support (3 runs or less in 14 starts), by facing more batters and throwing more pitches than anyone else in the league – Justin Verlander has made the Tigers a potential playoff team. If his teammates fail to clinch the division in the next two games he’ll be called on to make it official, with the world watching. Get your pens ready BBWAA voters, but not for the Cy Young ballot, Justin deserves to see his name written on another ballot, the one that decides the most valuable player in the American League.

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Tags: Detroit Tigers, Joe Mauer, Justin Verlander, Justin Verlander the MVP Candidate, Miguel Cabrera, Zack Greinke