Edwin Jackson And The Fork In The Road

Neu-Ulm West Germany is a long way from Cleveland, Ohio. It’s a long way from Detroit, and Tampa Bay, and Los Angeles for that matter. It’s a long way from everywhere that Major League Baseball is played. Edwin Jackson should know, he’s traveled across continents to get where he is today. An Army brat with numerous addresses in his past, Jackson has found his way from humble beginnings in military housing to a home in Detroit, amidst a pennant race.

Through high school stardom, a litany of bus trips through minor league towns and into the big leagues came the gangly right hander with potential bigger than his slight frame. He was proclaimed the savior of the Los Angeles Dodgers before he was old enough to drink. He washed out there and ended up in Tampa Bay, only to be traded three years later for a backup outfielder who hasn’t seen big league action since June 9th. Needless to say the fact that Edwin will take the hill tomorrow night in the clutches of a tight AL Central race is a testament to his resolve. He could have surrendered to the pressure. He could have bowed out in his early 20’s, taken his signing bonus and bid farewell to baseball, as he considered for a moment in the winter of 2005. God knows many a Dodger fan expected him to.

But he looked upon the change of scenery in Tampa Bay as an opportunity for a fresh start. In three years with the Rays he started 63 games, and appeared in 24 more as a reliever. He compiled a 19-26 record there, with a 5.08 ERA. Not exactly the stuff of a wunderkind. Then came the news he had been traded, again, this time to the Detroit Tigers. He would get another fresh start under the watchful eyes of Dave Dombrowski, Jim Leyland and Rick Knapp. They saw something in Jackson that suggested he could be better than his record. He was given a spot in the Tigers rotation, and immediately demonstrated he belonged.

10 of his first 11 efforts were quality starts. Through 74.1 innings pitched he had an ERA of 2.30, and had allowed only 59 hits. While he won only two games in the months of June and July combined, he turned in eight more quality starts in 10 attempts, and his ERA sat at 2.64, among the best in the American League. He made the All-Star team, and had cemented his footing as the #2 starter in the rotation of a team in first place. Edwin Jackson was on a roll. And then the wheels started to wobble.

He went 3-1 in August, but it was clear he was beginning to struggle. In five August starts he lasted more than 6.1 innings only once. He had accomplished this feat 12 times in his first 21 starts. He surrendered four earned runs twice in August. He had done so only twice this season prior to that. After allowing three home runs in May and June combined (76.1 innings) he coughed up seven dingers in July and six more in August – 13 home runs in 61.2 innings. As the temperature rose so did his batting average against.

September has seen that trend continue, as he’s allowed five long balls in 25 innings this month. Sure, he’s 2-1 thus far in September, but his ERA has risen to 3.37 for the season, a full run and change higher than it was on June 1st. He’s allowed four earned runs or more in four of his last five starts, and has looked far more hittable with each effort. So as he prepares to climb atop the mound tomorrow night at Progressive Field to battle the Cleveland Indians for the fifth time this season the question must be posed – which Edwin Jackson can we expect the rest of the way? The dominating force that befuddled opposing hitters in the seasons first half, or the merely average version with the 5.07 ERA since the All-Star break?

I suppose only time will tell with any certainty. While the recent indicators suggest he is regressing to his poor second half career numbers (4.94 ERA, 1.646 WHIP), there is some reason for hope. Tomorrow night he’ll face the Cleveland Indians. In four starts against them this year Jackson is 3-0 with a 2.74 ERA and 22 K’s against six walks in 23 innings pitched.

Beyond that start, well, let’s just say the jury is still out. If he continues to pitch every fifth day, as seems to be the plan as of now, he’ll face the White Sox in Chicago on the 27th of September and the Twins at Comerica Park on October 1st. He’s pitched against each club twice this season, and is 0-1 with a 4.85 ERA and four home runs allowed in 24.1 combined innings over the four starts.

it’s safe to say this is a crossroads of sort for Edwin, and he knows it. He has shown the baseball world he has the goods, that he can be as effective as any pitcher in the game, that he can help anchor the staff of a playoff contender. He has also shown that he is human, that the second half has been perilous, and that each start these days is a question mark.

Over his final efforts in the regular season and potentially into the post-season Edwin Jackson will be center stage, again, like he was back in 2003 as the 19 year old phenom scouts drooled over. As this team marches towards a likely playoff berth all eyes will be on the now 26 year old Jackson. If these Tigers hope to make noise in the ALDS and beyond he will need to again be the monster under the bed of opposing hitters from the first half of the season. With the back end of the Tigers rotation in flux and the bullpen showing recent signs of fatigue it will be imperative that Jackson can stand with Justin Verlander, and perhaps Rick Porcello, as the triumvirate in the Old English D that will take no prisoners. For if this team holds onto the AL Central lead the reward will be October baseball in the Bronx, where the Yankees are clicking on all cylinders.

The margin of error will be slim, there will be no room for failure.

Yes, Edwin Jackson stands at a fork in the road today, and tomorrow, and the rest of this baseball season, however long it lasts for these Tigers.

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Tags: AL Central Race, Chicago White Sox, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Edwin Jackson, Minnesota Twins, Tigers Magic Number