Be Careful What You Wish For

Looking back to July 31st, I remember the rather significant buzz around Tiger Town regarding the trade deadline and the players available that Tigers fans coveted. The stories were everywhere. It happens that time of year, at least for contenders. From the fleetingly casual fans to the most steadfast of junkies everyone it seems had opinions as to what weaknesses this team had, and what available talent would serve to plug the gaps. Theories abounded from every nook and cranny of the Tigers universe as to what was required to push this team towards the ultimate goal, a playoff berth and a chance to win a fifth World Series. One month later, regardless of your thoughts on the resulting trades as a whole, it’s safe to say expectations have exceeded results, so far.

Dave Dombrowski and the organization ventured into the mystic and snagged a starting pitcher on that last day of July, then 17 days later added a left handed bat with defensive versatility. While the end of this regular season will be the first official point in time where analysis of these moves will carry any real time tested weight, let’s examine what we’ve seen so far, and what we may expect in the final month.

Since donning the Old English D pitcher Jarrod Washburn has compiled a 1-2 record in six starts. In 37 innings of work Jarrod has walked 11 while striking out 18. He has surrendered 41 base hits, 11 of which have been home runs. This matches the total number of HR’s he had allowed in 133 innings of work with the Mariners this season. As a Tiger Washburn has allowed 28 earned runs, for an ERA of 6.81. In 20 starts with the Mariners that number was 2.64. His WHIP since July 31 – 1.405, prior – 1.068. It is safe to say this is not what fans and management had hoped for. His two quality starts as a Tiger have yielded victories for this team, his four other efforts rendered a 2-2 mark for the ballclub. So to be fair, the Tigers have won four of his six starts, albeit in spite of his work for the most part.

The numbers are what they are, the question however remains, why?

Why has Washburn failed to continue his impressive 2009 since coming east? This is the part where hypotheses outnumber answers, and where the majority of fans are less interested in the reasons than the results. It’s fair, and not fair in the same breath. The situation of acquiring a starting pitcher at the deadline suggests that his arrival would add, not subtract. The totality of media coverage, fan forums and water cooler banter build up these kind of trades to the point where expectations often soar beyond rational reality. It is expected when a first place team brings home a shiny new toy that it will work, especially since it had been working quite well thus far, at least in 2009.

Let us remember, however, that on the day Mr. Washburn took the hill at Comerica Park for the first time in his new uniform that he brought with him a career record of 106-106 with a 4.02 ERA over 11 seasons and change. This was not C.C. Sabathia landing in Milwaukee last summer, this was not Randy Johnson heading to Houston in 1998 – this was a long tenured .500 pitcher who happened to be having a pretty impressive ‘09. Washburn has won more than 11 games in a season only once, and had been better than a .500 pitcher only five of 11 seasons.

That is not to say we all should have expected this, but we also should not be feeling duped. The Tigers gambled on a hot streak, rode the lighting, took a shot, and must now hope for the best going forward. I don’t pen these words to trumpet a “I told you so” across the blogospere. I don’t. I didn’t. At least not fully. I too saw what Washburn had done with the Mariners this year. I too imagined his success continuing in a pitcher friendly ballpark, with a first place team behind him. I had hoped, like most of us, that the Tigers would get what they saw recently, and not in total. But, and it is a rather big butt in hindsight to date, I was aware of his career numbers on July 31st, we all were. So in essence this team has been the unfortunate recipient of a pitcher returning to par, rather than rifling off more birdies. It’s too bad, but it isn’t all too bizarre.

Washburn has not been the lone disappointment of the trade season for the Tigers, he’s actually been the rule rather than the exception. Aubrey Huff has also provided less than was wished for, at least so far. In 37 plate appearances he has reached base six times. Of his three hits in a Tigers uniform two have been singles and have produced but one run driven in. This from a hitter who had 72 RBI’s in 480 PA’s prior to August 17, which coincidentally was more than any Tiger on that date. He has started nine times and appeared in 11 of the 13 games the Tigers have played since his arrival. His batting average as a Tiger is .088, lower even then the dismal .097 Dane Sardinha compiled in his short stint with the team.

Like Washburn, Huff came to town with lofty expectations. He was labeled by many writers, including this one, as the answer. He was the left handed bat this team sorely needed. He was the versatile fielder who could theoreticaly play four positions. His .315 career batting average in August (which has now slipped to .312) suggested he would be productive when this team needed him most. It appears that tired old addage applies here, at least so far – games are not played on paper.

Unlike Washburn, Aubrey Huff had established a consistent track record as a solid hitter at the major league level. He of the .282 career average, the three 100 + RBI seasons, the six seasons of 20 + home runs, the career .818 OPS. While Jarrod Washburn may have been pitching above his head, Huff seemed to be the more stable and reliable option. Seemed to be. His current .241 average would be the lowest of any season of his career if the season ended today. His .309 OBP would be second worst, as would his .693 OPS. While he has struggled heftily so far, his 37 PA’s in Detroit have not been the cause of these figures, simply an exaggerated extension of them.

Both Jarrod Washburn and Aubrey Huff have yet to show Detroit fans with any consistency what we hoped to see. There have been flashes, but if you blinked you probably missed them.

So the question posed earlier remains, why?

Jarrod Washburn had credited his success this season to his work with Mariners pitching coach Rick Adair, who once held the same job with this team. Adair had noted that Washburn was not properly rotating his hips on his delivery, pulling his shoulder out of line and causing his pitches to drift from the target. This became the focus of his work. It worked. His fastball found the corners more often than the middle of the plate and his breaking pitches had more bite. In six starts as a Tiger it seems he has regressed to old habits. That, is actually the encouraging part. Rick Knapp is a good pitching coach. He surely knows what plagued Washburn previously, and should be able to practice the same efforts to correct them. I expect he will. The question then becomes can Jarrod Washburn focus on the physical and banish the mental demons that have cost him recently.

In plain english, he’s pressing. He feels the weight of a playoff chase on his shoulders. The sense of urgency and opportunity has been heavy on him, at least in my opinion. My amateur analysis, for what it’s worth, is that Jarrod Washburn needs to get out of Jarrod Washburns head and think about his hips. He needs to trust his stuff, and his defense, and not be afraid. Sure, there are other tweaks I suspect the coaches will suggest, tiny transformations and tips that will be worked into his delivery, this is standard fare for any hurler at any time of strife. If this combination can be effectively implemented I expect Jarrod to be more productive here to fore.

As for Mr. Huff, perhaps the same pressures are impeding his abilities, perhaps not. Maybe this is a blip on the radar. Maybe this small sample of slumpitude will serve as the ebb to the flow of a breakout waiting to be born in his next at-bat. Maybe. His track record suggests he’s better. He is however now hitting in a bigger park than Camden Yards. In his debut against the Mariners Huff hit a long fly ball to dead center that would likely have cleared the 410 foot fence in Baltimore. In Comerica Park however it was just a long fly ball that landed ten feet from the wall in the glove of the Mariners center fielder. It will take experiences like that to adjust his aim, his swing, his goals at the plate.

What has been interesting to me is his use only as a designated hitter. While no one is stamping out his name on a gold glove plaque, he has been a more than serviceable defender at multiple positions. He played 33 games at third base last year, with a .967 fielding percentage. He manned first base 24 times in 2008 with a perfect 1.000 mark. Over 245 games in the corner outfield positions Huff has a career .977 mark. Again, he is not Torii Hunter, he is not Ichiro, but he is not Adam Dunn either.

Part of the allure with Aubrey Huff was his ability to play the corner infield and outfield positions as needed. With the ineffectiveness of various Tigers in left and right combined with the bad knees of Brandon Inge I had expected he would participate defensively for this ballclub. He has not yet played in the field as a Tiger. Is this Gary Sheffield-esque DH only struggle the cause of his weak bat, who knows, but it could be. More importantly, he could be providing a service to this team that he is not. While it is no guarantee wearing a glove in between at-bats will help him find his stroke, it isn’t the worst idea in the world to attempt.

For the record Aubrey Huff is a career .284 hitter with 32 home runs and 112 RBI’s in 221 games in the months of September/October. Jarrod Washburn holds a lifetime 11-20 record with a 4.34 ERA over 41 starts in that same span. So there is good and bad in the previous numbers. There is good and bad in their 2009 numbers. There is good and bad in deadline deals in general, as this team has found out thus far. While it is too early, and useless, to look back and say I told you so, it is cautious to say be careful what you wish for, you just might get it. It is important to note, and to remember that despite the struggles of Washburn and Huff this team is still leading the AL Central. This team has continued to hold that lead even with their struggles, and that is impressive in at least some way.

However the final month of the season alters or enforces our opinions of these two players it is imperative that both find their upside, and find it soon. The fans and the team still have those same lofty expectations that lead to their acquisition. It certainly would be nice to write a column on October 1st praising both for their stretch run dynamics. But we’ll have to wait and see, as always, about that.

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Tags: Aubrey Huff, Detroit Tigers, Detroit Tigers Trades, Jarrod Washburn