Raising Rick Porcello

April 9th seems so long ago. In calendar time it is little more than four and a half months. In terms of seasons, spring gave way to summer, which is now in turn beginning to surrender to autumn. The normal cycle is underway, at normal speed. When it comes to the evolution of Rick Porcello however, the clock seems to be spinning at dizzying speed, as if lifted from the intro of the old Twilight Zone show. It seems I have hardly blinked since the 20 year old rookie took the hill in a big league game for the first time, a mediocre road loss against the Toronto Blue Jays.

He allowed four runs on nine hits over five innings in that first start, striking out four and walking one. He coughed up two home runs, essentially costing the Tigers the game. Ten days later he took the mound in Seattle, and promptly notched his first major league victory with seven strong innings. The third inning solo home run off the bat of Ronny Cedeno was the only run he allowed, and one of only five hits the Mariners would garner from him that day.

People began to speculate that one of the two starts, perhaps both, could be chalked up to some combination of beginners luck and being nervous. While none of us truly knew what to expect, it was around this time that the hypotheses begun to surface as to what this inaugural season of Rick Porcello would entail. Some speculated he would struggle mightily, as so many promising young arms before him had done. He would show occassional flashes of excellence while getting steadily whipped by veteran hitters. Others pondered that he would be quite effective, for a short time, only to tire and fade by Independence Day. He would end up back in the minor leagues, where he belonged, proving the Tigers had acted hastily adding him to the roster. After all, he was barely three months removed from his teen years when he broke camp with the big club. He had pitched a grand total of 125 professional innings, at single A Lakeland, prior to facing the Blue Jays in the Skydome back on April 9th.

After allowing two home runs and taking the loss on the road for the second time in three starts against Kansas City on April 24th he strode to the Comerica Park mound for the first time on April 29. He would face the New York Yankees in his highly anticipated home debut.

He didn’t get out of the fourth inning.

Porcello was hammered for six earned runs in the fourth frame before mercifully being yanked. So it was that the phenom was 1-3, with a 6.23 ERA. He had served up six home runs in 21.2 innings, allowing four earned runs or more in three of his first four starts. People began to speak in unguarded tongues about the decision to bring him north. Talk radio pundits and columnists and fans alike made no secret of their feelings. He was rushed. He should be at AA, not here. He isn’t ready. Something needs to change, and quickly.

And then it did.

His spot in the rotation didn’t change, no, both Jim Leyland and Dave Dombrowski stood by their young hurler. They saw the talent. They knew what he was capable of. What changed was the results. In the month of May Rick Porcello was undefeated. He won five times in five starts, tossing four quality starts and allowing a total of five earned runs and one home run. His once unseemly ERA had settled down to the tune of 3.48. The same folks who had been discussing his demise were now beginning to sew the threads of the banner I claim today should be hung in plain sight – Rick Porcello should be the 2009 American League Rookie of the Year.

Of course the campaign was still young, much could happen before September went belly up on another regular season. Even folks who procliamed his virtue warned that he would tire, he would wear down. We were told to enjoy it while it lasted. We were reminded of so many other youngsters who captured fleeting moments of glory on the mound only to be left in the weeds as the season chugged its way home down the tracks. Just ask Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke, even Edwin Jackson. Each made their big league debut at an early age, a heaping helping of expectation piled atop their skinny little shoulders. Each had moments in their rookie season, moments where they were as good as any pitcher on the planet. The problem was that these moments were engulfed by hours of failure and strife. They broke down, couldn’t handle it, lost their way, fizzled out and ended up back in the minors.

We stand today on the brink of the final month of the season, and Rick Porcello is still here. Not only that, he’s still pretty damn good.

He won his 11th game of the season last night, allowing four hits and one run over 5.2 innings to the team that represented the AL in the World Series last year. While it was only his second win this month, it was the fifth time in six August starts that he allowed two runs or less. In 31.1 innings in August Porcello has allowed 11 earned runs, or an ERA of 3.16. He has allowed 25 hits and 34 total base runners in that span, good for a whip of 1.09. He’s done it on the road, at home, against good teams and bad, and with little fanfare. He’s done all this in August, long after most assumed he and his dead arm would be on bed rest for the remainder of the season.

Instead he’s still shining. With last nights effort in the books Porcello has now thrown more career innings in the major leagues than in the minors. He is up to 128.2 on the season, perfect pace to take the hill another five times or so and finish the year with around 160 innings on his arm. Which is pretty much where Jim Leyland figured he would be all along. For all the flack Leyland takes from fans and writers alike for certain choices, he deserves much credit for believing in Porcello, and for managing him and his workload so well.

Only 11 pitchers in the American League have more victories than Rick Porcello, of those 11 all have thrown more innings. Of the 24 pitchers in the junior circuit with double digit wins as of today only Kevin Slowey of the Twins has worked fewer innings. Efficiency is a good thing. A good bullpen helps, as does run support, two areas where Rick Porcello has been more fortunate than his comrades in the rotation this year. Just ask Edwin Jackson, he of the third best ERA in the AL, who has fewer wins than Porcello.

The argument can be made that Ricky Romero of the Blue Jays has been better than Porcello, as rookies go. Numerically it is a good argument, albeit a close one. Each has 11 victories. Porcello has eight losses, Romero five. Ricky leads Rick in ERA (3.91 to 4.27), has more K’s, and has surrendered fewer home runs (16 vs. 20). However, the Toronto Blue Jays are 10 games under .500, 21 games out of the AL East lead. The Tigers are nine games plus even stevens, with a 4.5 game advantage in their division, thanks in large part to Rick Porcello.

Imagine for a moment that Porcello was honing his skills in AA, preparing for his arrival in 2010. Imagine he did not make the club out of spring training, that he never took the hill for the big club this year. Who would have taken his turn the 24 times he has went to the mound? Dontrelle Willis? Nate Robertson? Zach Miner? Lucas French? Scott Drucker? Rick Knapp?

Thanks to a kid two years out of high school the organization has not had to answer that painful question. The powers that be with the Tigers have been able to focus their attention on other issues, knowing that Slick Rick would toe the rubber as called, and do it oh so well. That my friends, defies statistical analysis. It also defies expectations for a kid who won’t be able to drink the champagne if the Tigers find themselves celebrating a playoff berth. Rarely does the term rookie apply as well as it does in this case. With no disrespect to Ricky Romero, but if he were in the minor leagues the Blue Jays would still be, well, the Blue Jays. Without Rick Porcello, who knows where this rotation and this team might be.

I will freely admit that there is room for improvement here. Rick Porcello can get better. He has made mistakes, highlighted by the aforementioned 20 home runs allowed in 128.2 innings pitched. Rookies will do that. There is a reason I’m touting Porcello for the Rookie of the Year Award and not the Cy Young. He can get stronger. He can develop and pitch deeper into games, alleviating pressure on the bullpen. He will. It just might take a year or two. It’s good to know in the interim that he’s capable of great things on a small scale at least.

While not without shortcomings, Porcello has proven that he belongs. He belongs in the major leagues. He belongs in the Tigers rotation. He belongs atop the list of candidates for Rookie of the Year.

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Tags: American League Rookie of the Year, Clayton Kershaw, Detroit Tigers, Edwin Jackson, Jim Leyland, Max Scherzer, Rick Knapp, Rick Porcello, Rick Porcello rookie of the year, Ricky Romero