The State of the Tigers – 1/2 Way Through

Let’s take a moment to examine the Tigers under the microscope and in the big picture sense at the 81 game mark, or the halfway point of the season. Make it 82 games, I’m a day late. Alas,

Overall Record: 44-38, first place in the AL Central by 1.5 games
Home Record: 23-12
Road Record: 21-26
Day Games: 20-10
Night Games: 24-28
One Run Games: 13-11

Interesting. I don’t mean to pat myself on the back too hard but I did predict a 44-37 record at the 81 game mark. Of course I also predicted earlier this year that Placido Polanco would be hitting .300 or better by now, so you win some you lose some. Anyhow, enough about me.

When looking deeper into the teams record in various situations a few things are worthy of mention. The Tigers are the only first place team in MLB with a losing road record. They also (along with the Phillies) have the lowest winning percentage of any team currently leading their division. The Tigers 13-11 record in one run games is just about the league average. The Tigers (along with the Blue Jays) have more wins in day games than any team not named the Chicago Cubs and have played only 35 home games to date. So, with 46 of the seasons final 80 games to be played at Comerica Park the prospect of home field advantage seems to fit.

Let’s break down the offense, shall we? Ranks listed in parenthesis are among AL teams.

Team Batting Average: .258 (11th)
Runs Scored: 388 (9th)
Hits: 711 (T-11th)
HR: 96 (7th)
On Base %: .327 (10th)
Slugging %: .419 (T-9th)
OPS: .746 (11th)
Total Bases: 1153 (10th)

My mother told me once if I were to keep making this face it would freeze like this, so I’m going to think about something happier, like say, the Pitching numbers….

Team ERA: 4.21 (5th)
ER allowed: 338 (T-4th best)
Batting Average Against: .260 (T-5th)
Strike outs: 569 (5th)
Walks allowed: 308 (2nd worst)
Shutouts: 7 (1st)
OBP Allowed: .336 (10th)
Slugging % Allowed: .417 (7th)
OPS Allowed: .753 (8th)
Saves: 18 (T-10th)
Blown Saves: 15 (14th, aka worst)
Hits Allowed: 716 (5th best)

Ok, so it isn’t all positive, but in general the numbers reflect a quality pitching staff. While the Tigers offense has been mediocre at best and getting progressively worse, the pitching has kept this team in contention, kept them in first place, which is the statistical category that ultimately matters most.

Let’s break down the hitters a bit more.

Vs. left handed pitchers: .262/.338/.443/.781, 201 hits in 766 at-bats, 77 extra base hits, 29 home runs, 101 RBI’s, 104 runs scored

Vs. right handed pitchers: .257/.323/.409/.732, 510 hits in 1,988 at-bats, 157 extra base hits, 67 home runs, 271 RBI’s, 284 runs scored

Home: .276/.355/.452/.807, 316 hits in 1,143 at-bats, 107 extra base hits, 42 home runs, 189 RBI’s, 195 runs scored

Away: .245/.307/.395/.701, 395 hits in 1,611 at-bats, 127 extra base hits, 54 home runs, 183 RBI’s, 193 runs scored

Ok, so the Tigers have higher BA/OBP/SLG/OPS numbers against lefties and are significantly better at home than on the road. Only four teams in the AL have a worse batting average on the road then the Tigers .245 mark. Considering the previously mentioned fact that the Tigers will play 46 of the final 80 games at home one could predict the offensive numbers overall will improve.

Now let’s disect the pitching further.

Starting Pitchers: 31-28, 4.17 ERA, 476.1 innings pitched, 1.39 WHIP, K to BB ratio 2.01:1, .263 batting average against, .334 OBP against, .426 SLG % against, .760 OPS against

Bullpen: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 247 innings pitched, 1.46 WHIP, K to BB ratio 1.60:1, .256 batting average against, .340 OBP against, .400 slugging % against, .740 OPS against

Home: 23-12, 3.62 ERA, 313 innings pitched, 1.33 WHIP, K to BB ratio 1.89:1, .240 batting average against, .321 OBP against, .389 slugging % against, .710 OPS against

Away: 21-26, 4.65 ERA, 410.1 innings pitched, 1.48 WHIP, K to BB ratio 1.81:1, .276 batting average against, .347 OBP against, .438 slugging % against, .785 OPS against

Vs. Left handed hitters: .273 batting average against, .351 OBP against, .432 slugging % against, .783 OPS against

Vs. right handed hitters: .248 batting average against, ,321 OBP against, .402 slugging % against, .723 OPS against

I know, it’s a lot to chew on. I’m not surprised that left handed hitters fare notably better against the Tigers as left handed pitching is not this clubs strength. The rotation vs. bullpen splits don’t showcase any disproportionate results, although the home vs. away numbers are a bit startling.

In terms of defense let’s see how the Tigers rank and rate. Again, ranks in parenthesis are among AL teams.

Fielding %: .987 (3rd)
Errors: 40 (3rd fewest)
Assists: 844 (6th)
Double Plays: 219 (2nd)
Ultimate Zone Rating: 26.7 (3rd)
Caught Stealing: 35% (5th)

All in all this team has played strong defense according to the numbers.

Grades

Offense: C -

The numbers tell the story here, in black and white and in many shades of gray. The Tigers rank in the bottom half of the AL in virtually every offensive category. The team has scored three runs or fewer more times than you would believe.

Scored 0 runs: 2 times
Scored 1 run: 11 times
Scored 2 runs: 9 times
Scored 3 runs: 15 times
Scored 3 runs or less: 37 times (out of 82 games)

The Tigers have grounded into 80 double plays, the most in the American League. They have stolen 44 bases (11th) and have been successful only 68% (12th). Interestingly this ballclub is hitting .271 with RISP (4th) with an OPS of .807 in these situations (3rd), so there is hope. If this team can generate more base runners (currently 10th in OBP at .327) and swing the bats better on the road things could begin to improve. Consistency is the biggest problem, one that hopefully the addition of a big bat or two can correct. Between the possible return of Carlos Guillen and any moves at the trade deadline this team has the potential to get better, quickly.

Pitching: B -

Despite the struggles at the back end of the starting rotation and some inconsistent bullpen work lately this team is pitching more than well enough to win the AL Central. Justin Verlander and Edwin Jackson continue to anchor the staff, while Armando Galarraga has shown us signs he is capable of being a strong third starter and Rick Porcello has been a pleasant surprise. While Fernando Rodney has an ERA of 4.25 he is also a perfect 17-17 in save chances. Bobby Seay leads the AL with 17 holds.

On the other hand….

Amongst the balance of the bullpen the Tigers have 15 blown saves. It’s a deceptive number as they went on to win a number of those games, but the stat illustrates the bullpen is not always as reliable as we may think. The Tigers have used 20 different pitchers this season to date, so the staff has seen transition and fluctutation. At the end of the day the pitching could be better, but it is good enough to take this team to the playoffs.

Defense: A -

The early struggles seem to be behind this team. Statistically speaking the Tigers are an upper echelon defensive team. In the real life on the field sense the infield has been strong and reliable while the outfield has been above average, despite some rather odd errors here and there from young fielders like Ryan Raburn, Josh Anderson, Clete Thomas and Don Kelly. This team can flash the leather well enough to keep wins in the win column, which is the goal.

Management: C +

Jim Leyland has done the best he can with what he’s had in some cases, while he is blessed to have some spectacular talent on his roster. The constant shuffling of minor leaguers in and out of the Tigers dugout wears on a team, and somehow Leyland has kept this team balanced and in stride, for that he deserves credit. I still believe he manages a bit too much by the book and has cost this team a game or three this season, but my overall opinion of his work has sweetened in the last month.

Dave Dombrowski has built this team, for better and worse. While ultimately this entitles him to the credit of having a first place team in early July I contend this team is leading the AL Central in spite of themselves. If there was a truly dominant team in this division that club would have put the Tigers in 2nd place weeks ago. Between Jeremy Bonderman, Carlos Guillen, Gary Sheffield, Magglio Ordonez, Dontrelle Willis and Nate Robertson I don’t know which contract is the worst at this point in time, but suffice it to say the financial pressure on this team is heavy. More importantly, several roster spots are filled by players that are not helping this team win, which is a shame.

Overall: B -

First place is as first place does. While I believe change is required in the coming days to keep this team atop the division, I must give credit to a group of men who have somehow maintained a division lead much longer than many of us expected.

This team has weapons, it has big time talent, it has veteran leadership, strong coaching and a terrific owner committed to winning. It also has holes and deficincies, but these can be fixed. Whether that will happen and when remain to be seen.

Going forward:

In the next 27 games (28 let’s say to get through a full series) the Tigers will face the Royals (2), Indians (6), Yankees (3), Mariners (3), White Sox (4), Rangers (3), Orioles (4) and Twins (3). Of these 28 games 19 will be played in the friendly confines of Comerica Park, where the Tigers are 23-12. The combined record of the teams the Tigers will face is 326-332.

I’ll predict the Tigers will win 16 of these 28 games and run their record to 60-50 at the 110 game mark. So much depends upon moves not yet made, but I feel comfortable guessing the Tigers will retain their division lead, albeit small.

I’ll be back at the 110 game mark with another in-depth look.

Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com

Tags: Detroit Tigers fielding stats, Detroit Tigers grades, Detroit Tigers hitting stats, Detroit Tigers pitching stats, the State of the Tigers - 1/2 way through