Edwin Jacksons Worst Enemy – the Tigers Offense
June 29th, 2009 | by jelletlambie |Currently there are 54 pitchers in the American League who have tossed 60 or more innings this season. Edwin Jackson is one of those pitchers. Of these 54 pitchers eight have an ERA below 3.00, again, Edwin Jackson is among this group. His 2.49 ERA is in fact third best in the AL behind Zack Greinke (1.95) and Erik Bedard (2.47). Only one pitcher in this group, Zack Greinke, has a lower WHIP (1.02) than Edwin Jackson and his 1.04 mark. Jackson boasts a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.9 to 1, has recorded a quality start 12 of the 16 times he’s taken the hill and has allowed more than three earned runs in a start only twice all year. Why then is his record a meager 6-4? Why are the Tigers barely above break even at 9-7 in games he’s started?
Run Support, or should I say the lack of it.
While pitchers are oft judged based on their ERA, it is their RSA that dictates how much help they get from their own offense. RSA is run support average, a stat that works similar to ERA. You add up the total number of runs scored by the pitchers team in his starts, in this case the 62 total runs that the Tigers have scored in the 16 games in which Jackson has pitched. You then divide that number by the number of innings the pitcher has thrown, in this case 108.1 innings. You take that number and multiply it by nine and you have the average number of runs the teams offense will score in a nine inning period when that pitcher starts a game, in this case 5.15 runs per nine innings when Jackson starts. Of the 54 pitchers mentioned above who have thrown 60 or more innings thus far in 2009, only three have had less help in the RSA category than Jackson – Zack Greinke, Cliff Lee and Dallas Braden.
Keep in mind that Jacksons run support average is artificially inflated to boot.
Among the 16 starts worth of data that factors into his RSA is the may 15th game against the A’s when the Tigers scored 14 runs, which I believe is safe to call an anomaly. If you remove that game from his numbers Jackson has had 48 runs of support in 15 starts covering 101.1 innings. That equates to an RSA of 4.26. If that isn’t tough enough, consider that 20 of the 62 runs scored by the Tigers in his starts were scored after he left the game. So in actuality the Tigers have scored a total of 42 runs during his 108.1 innings pitched, or 3.49 runs of support for every nine innings he’s been on the hill - exactly one run more per nine innings than he has allowed in that span based on his 2.49 ERA. I think that would qualify as a slim margin of error to say the very least.
How do the Tigers perform with other starters on the mound? Justin Verlander has an RSA of 6.36, Rick Porcello 8.69 and Armando Galarraga a whopping 9.15, exactly four runs greater than Jackson.
While the numbers tell the story there is no evidence as to why Jackson suffers at the hands of his offense the way he does. Hypothesis abound, from a greater sense of confidence when he pitches equating to a softened sense of offensive urgency to bad luck, bad karma, the poor alignment of the planets and God knows what else.
As mentioned above the Tigers are 9-7 in games Jackson has started this year. As Jackson has been in the #2 spot in the rotation most of the season I thought perhaps it was the quality of pitchers opposing him that hampered the Tigers offense in this way. After doing a little research I’m not sold on this idea.
In the nine games Jackson has started that the Tigers have won the opposing starting pitcher has been:
Kevin Millwood (twice) 8-5, 2.64 ERA, Erik Bedard 5-2, 2.47, Fausto Carmona 2-6, 7.42, Brett Anderson 3-7, 5.74, Jason Berken 1-4, 6.32, Kelvim Escobar 0-1, 3.60 Carlos Zambrano 4-3, 3.69 and Russ Ortiz 3-3, 3.36.
So, six times in this situation the Tigers have beaten a pitcher with a current ERA of 3.69 or lower. Five times they have beaten a pitcher with a record of .500 or better. The Tigers scored a total of 44 runs in these nine victories, including the aforementioned 14 runs against the A’s on 5/15. How has the team done in losses?
In the seven games Jackson has started that the Tigers have lost the opposing starting pitcher has been:
David Purcey 0-2, 7.01 ERA, Matt Palmer 7-1, 5.16, Phillip Hughes 3-2, 4.44, Francisco Liriano 4-8, 5.62, Zack Greinke 10-3, 1.95, Gavin Floyd 5-5, 4.45 and Todd Wellemeyer 6-7, 5.68.
So, six of the seven losses in this situation have come against pitchers with a current ERA of 4.44 or worse, although strangely three of those same pitchers have a .500 record or better. Counting Greinke four of the seven have a .500 record or better. The Tigers have scored 18 total runs in these seven losses.
Jackson isn’t the only hurler in the AL with bad luck in this department. Defending AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee has the lowest RSA of any qualified starter in the league at 4.86. His 2009 record stands at 4-6 despite his 2.92 ERA. Zack Greinke has an RSA of 5.07, third worst in the AL, but has somehow managed to win 10 games thanks to his early brilliance.
If you’ve read this far and are hoping I will now unveil the answer as to why this happens to Jackson and the Tigers, I’m sorry to disappoint you, but I have no idea, I only know he’s getting the fuzzy end of the lollipop far more often than he deserves this year. I also know that if this trend doesn’t change, and soon, it will be logical to expect Jackson could begin to resent his offense for it.
The numbers tell us that when it comes to Jacksons starts the Tigers score fewer runs in losses than in wins, which is true in the case of any starting pitcher over the course of the season. Aside from Zack Greinke the starting pitchers opposing Jackson this year who have seen their team beat the Tigers are less than impressive as a whole. The opposing starters that have fallen to the Tigers in this case include a majority of upper echelon pitchers, at least statistically speaking, this year to date. Is this some kind of an alternate universe with Edwin Jackson as its Bizarro Superman where black is white and up is down? Who knows, but for Edwin I’ll bet it feels that way.
Have a question or a comment? Leave your thoughts below or drop me a line at jelletlambie@gmail.com – and don’t forget to check out the My Favorite Tiger is page – you can read others answers and let the world know your choice.
Tags: Cliff Lee, Detroit Tigers, Edwin Jackson, Edwin Jackson run support, Edwin Jacksons worst enemy - the Detroit Tigers offense, RSA, Run Support Average, Tigers offense when Edwin Jackson Pitches, Zack Greinke
By BigJP on Jun 29, 2009
I saw something in Jayson Stark’s postings recently that showed Jackson among the league leaders in what they were calling Criminally Unsupported Starts. It seems like every season two or three guys will go without runs for the whole year.
I recall Randy Johnson going through that once when he lost something like four straight games and allowed six runs total in those games.
By Mike on Jun 29, 2009
Isn’t it misleading to say his RSA is 5.15 when they’ve scored a total of 62 runs in his 16 games? Shouldn’t it just be 62 divided by 16 (which would be a little under 4)? During the game yesterday Mario and Rod said the Tigers were averaging 3.55 runs per game when Jax starts.
By jelletlambie on Jun 29, 2009
Mike,
It is misleading in a sense, which is why I broke it down in so many different ways to show the actual amount of run support he’s getting, which isn’t very much. However, RSA is the standard stat most media folk will use for this discussion so I felt it should be mentioned.
And yes, if you divide 62 runs by 16 games you get 3.875 runs per game. The telling stat for me is looking at the actual number of runs the Tigers have scored while Edwin was pitching, as 20 of those 62 runs mentioned have come after Jackson was pulled from the game. That makes 42 runs scored in support of Jackson in the 108.1 innings he’s pitched, which works out to 3.49 runs of support per nine innings he’s pitched.
No matter how you slice it the numbers are awful, which is a shame.
Thanks for the read, and your thoughts.